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Email is going to be with us for a long time.
1.-it is evolving. it is not like the evolution of E-mail has ever stopped.
2.-It will eventually be "live". when E-mail gets to be as live as twitter. what would be E-mail shortcoming then? = none
3.-E-mail will go the same way start pages did. it will become a Social Networking hub all by itself. a simple look at yahoo e-mail demo from CES, Gmail concepts for the future , the new AOL mail done in silverlight and MS own e-mail version done in silverlight tapped with Windows Live Services API`s (yeah, i know very few people have seen the theoretical scenarios around that, but still) and you got that E-mail can be the most powerful thing for communication.
So. yeah E-mail is not going anywhere for the foreseeable future. i think the next time people get to discuss if E-mail is going away will be by 2020. :P